Assessing the incorporation of latent variables in the estimation of the value of a statistical life.

For many years, the economic literature has recognized the role of attitudes, beliefs, and perceptions in estimating the value of a statistical life (VSL). However, few applications have attempted to include them. This article incorporates the perceived controllability and concern about traffic and cardiorespiratory risks to estimate VSL using a hybrid choice model (HCM). The HCM allows us to include unobserved heterogeneity and improve behavioral realism explicitly. Using data from a choice experiment conducted in Santiago, Chile, we estimate a VSL of US$3.78 million for traffic risks and US$2.06 million for cardiorespiratory risks. We found that higher controllability decreases the likelihood that the respondents would be willing to pay for risk reductions in both risks. On the other hand, concern about these risks decreases the willingness to pay for traffic risk reductions but increases it for cardiorespiratory risk reductions.

The economics impacts of long-run droughts: Challenges, gaps, and way forward.

Quantifying drought's economic impacts has been key for decision-making to build future strategies and improve the development and implementation of proactive plans. However, climate change is changing drought frequency, intensity, and durability. These changes imply modifications of their economic impact, as longer droughts result in greater cumulative economic losses for water users. Though the longer the drought lasts, other factors also play a crucial role in its economic outcomes, such as Infrastructure capacity (IC), the Amount of Water in Storage (AWS) in reservoirs and aquifers, and short- and long-term responses to it. This study proposes and applies an analytical framework for the economic assessment of long-run droughts, assessing and explaining central Chile megadrought economic effects through the factors that begin to influence the economic impact level in this setting. High levels of both IC and the AWS, as well as short- and long-term responses of water users, allow for high resilience to long-run droughts, tolerating extraordinary water disruption in its society with relatively low total economic impacts. Despite this adaptability, long-term droughts bring places to a water-critical threshold where long-term adaptation strategies may be less flexible than short-term strategies, escalating the adverse economic effects. This fact suggests that the economic evaluation of megadrought needs to focus on future tipping points (substantial water scarcity). The tipping point depends on the IC, how water users manage the AWS, and adaptation strategies. Establishing the tipping point should be a priority for future interdisciplinary research.

Understanding the role of personal experiences and contextual variables in shaping risk reduction preferences.

This article explores how preferences for risk reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic are influenced by personal experiences and contextual variables such as having a close friend or relative who has been infected by the virus (closeness), the severity of the illness (severity), people's own perceptions of being in a risky group (risk group), change in employment status due to the pandemic (employment situation), and vaccination status (vaccination status and altruistic vaccination). We conducted a choice experiment (CE) in Chile, Colombia, and Costa Rica. The attributes of the experiment were risk reduction, latency, and cost. Then, we estimated a mixed logit model to capture preference heterogeneity across the countries. The attributes presented in the CE were statistically significant, with the expected sign in each country. The variables closeness and employment situation presented homogeneous behavior in each country; however, severity, risk group, and vaccination status showed mixed results. We found that preferences were more heterogeneous for the attributes of the CE than for the personal experiences and contextual variables. Understanding the impact of these variables is essential for generating more effective risk reduction policies. For instance, methodologies such as the value of statistical life base their calculations on society's valuation of risk reduction. We provide evidence that the preferences for risk reduction vary due to the everyday situations that individuals face in the context of the pandemic. The latter may cause distortions in the values used to evaluate policies aimed at mitigating the outbreak.

Use of medical services in Chile: How sensitive are the results to different econometric models?

BACKGROUND: We compared different econometric specifications to model the use of medical services in Chile, focussing on visits to general practitioners and specialist physicians. METHODS: The evaluated models are the Poisson, Negative Binomial, Zero Inflated Poisson and Negative Binomial, two-step Hurdle model, sample-selection Poisson, and Latent Class model. These models were estimated using Chilean data for the years 2009 and 2015, separated by gender. RESULTS: Unlike previous literature that supported the use of the latent class model, our results show that the latent class model is not always the model with the best goodness of fit. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is not necessarily the model with the best predictive power. For instance, depending on the year and medical services, either the latent class model or the sample-selection Poisson model performs better than the other models. The results also show that the selection of the econometric model may have implications for the estimated influence that variables such as age, income, or affiliation to the public versus private sector have on the use of medical services. CONCLUSION: Using Chilean data, we have tested that the selection of an econometric method to model the use of medical services is not a problem with a unique answer. We recommend performing a sensitivity analysis of goodness of fit and predictive power between gender, healthcare services, or different years of datasets in future applications to be sure about the best model specification in each context.

Gaps, biases, and future directions in research on the impacts of anthropogenic land-use change on aquatic ecosystems: a topic-based bibliometric analysis.

Anthropogenic land use change (ALUC) satisfies human needs but also impacts aquatic ecosystems. Aquatic ecosystems are intrinsically linked with terrestrial landscapes, an association that is already recognized as a key factor to address future research and effective governance. However, the complexity and range of the impact of ALUC in aquatic ecosystems have been fundamental challenges and have implicitly routed the analysis to particular segments, drivers, management, or effects of the theme. In this study, we present an attempt to frame the subject in a broader context through a topic-based bibliometric analysis. Our aim is to identify possible biases and gaps in the current scientific literature and detect the main topics that have characterized the theme. Our results show an unequal distribution of articles by country when we analyzed the authors' affiliation and also a slight increase in contributions from social and economic disciplines, although they are still underrepresented. Moreover, we distinguish topics whose prevalence seems to change, especially those topics where the use of scenario analysis and multi-stressors are considered. We discuss the main biases and gaps revealed by our results, concluding that future studies on the impact of ALUC on aquatic ecosystems should better integrate social and economic disciplines and expand geographic frontiers.

Linking social preferences and ocean acidification impacts in mussel aquaculture.

Ocean Acidification (OA) has become one of the most studied global stressors in marine science during the last fifteen years. Despite the variety of studies on the biological effects of OA with marine commercial species, estimations of these impacts over consumers' preferences have not been studied in detail, compromising our ability to undertake an assessment of market and economic impacts resulting from OA at local scales. Here, we use a novel and interdisciplinary approach to fill this gap. We experimentally test the impact of OA on commercially relevant physical and nutritional attributes of mussels, and then we use economic discrete choice models to assess the marginal effects of these impacts over consumers' preferences and wellbeing. Results showed that attributes, which were significantly affected by OA, are also those preferred by consumers. Consumers are willing to pay on average 52% less for mussels with evidences of OA and are willing to increase the price they pay to avoid negative changes in attributes due to OA. The interdisciplinary approach developed here, complements research conducted on OA by effectively informing how OA economic impacts can be analyzed under the lens of marginal changes in market price and consumer' welfare. Thereby, linking global phenomena to consumers' wellbeing, and shifting the focus of OA impacts to assess the effects of local vulnerabilities in a wider context of people and businesses.

Changes in socioeconomic inequalities in the use of dental care following major healthcare reform in Chile, 2004-2009.

The study examines changes in the distribution and socioeconomic inequalities of dental care utilization among adults after the major healthcare reform in Chile, 2004-2009. We evaluated the proportion of people who visited the dentist at least once in the previous two years, and the mean number of visits. These outcome variables were stratified by sex, age (20-39, 40-59, 60-63; ≥64 years), educational level (primary, secondary, higher), type of health insurance (public, private, uninsured), and socioeconomic status (quintiles of an asset-index). We also used the concentration index (CIndex) to assess the extent of socioeconomic inequalities in the use of dental care, stratified by age and sex as a proxy for dental care needs. The use of dental care significantly increased between 2004 and 2009, especially in those with public health insurance, with lower educational level and lower socioeconomic status. The CIndex for the total population significantly decreased both for the proportion who used dental care, and also the mean number of visits. Findings suggest that the use of dental care increased and socioeconomic-related inequalities in the utilization of dental care declined after a Major Health Reform, which included universal coverage for some dental cares in Chile. However, efforts to ameliorate these inequalities require an approach that moves beyond a sole focus on rectifying health coverage.

[Inequality and inequity in the use of medical services in Chile, by age group, 2000-2011]. / Desigualdad e inequidad en la utilización de servicios médicos según grupos etarios en Chile, 2000-2011.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate indices of inequality and inequity in the use of medical services for children, adults, and older adults in Chile from 2000 to 2011. METHODS: Based on the CASEN survey (2000-2011), the concentration index (CI) was calculated to measure inequality and the horizontal inequity index (HI) was calculated to measure inequity in the use of medical services. Four groups were studied: children under 5, children aged 6-18 years, adults, and older adults. RESULTS: The results indicate higher levels of inequality in the use of specialized physician services in the child groups, and higher levels of inequity in the adult group. In the use of dental services, the greatest inequality and inequity is found among older adults. For visits to emergency services in the last two years for which data are available (2009 and 2011), the adult group shows a higher level of inequality. CONCUSIONS: In terms of levels of inequity and inequality, there are differences among children, adults, and older adults over the years in at least three of the six variables studied.

Desigualdad e inequidad en la utilización de servicios médicos según grupos etarios en Chile, 2000-2011 / Inequality and inequity in the use of medical services in Chile, by age group, 2000-2011

OBJETIVO: Calcular los índices de desigualdad e inequidad en la utilización de servicios médicos para menores, adultos y adultos mayores en Chile entre 2000 y 2011 MÉTODOS: Se utiliza la encuesta CASEN (2000-2011) y se calculan el índice de concentración (IC) para medir la desigualdad y el índice de inequidad horizontal (IIH) para medir inequidad en la utilización de servicios médicos. Los grupos de análisis son cuatro: menores de 5 años, menores entre 6 y 18 años, adultos y adultos mayores RESULTADOS: Los resultados indican que la utilización de servicios de médicos especialistas presenta mayor nivel de desigualdad en los grupos de menores de edad y mayor nivel de inequidad en el grupo de adultos. En la utilización de servicios de atención dental, es el grupo de adultos mayores el de mayor desigualdad e inequidad. Las visitas a servicios de urgencias en los dos últimos años de los cuales se tienen datos (2009 y 2011), presentan mayor nivel de desigualdad en el grupo de adultos CONCLUSIONES: Existen diferencias en los niveles de inequidad y desigualdad entre menores, adultos y adultos mayores a través de los años al menos en tres de las seis variables en estudio.

OBJECTIVE: To calculate indices of inequality and inequity in the use of medical services for children, adults, and older adults in Chile from 2000 to 2011 METHODS: Based on the CASEN survey (2000-2011), the concentration index (CI) was calculated to measure inequality and the horizontal inequity index (HI) was calculated to measure inequity in the use of medical services. Four groups were studied: children under 5, children aged 6-18 years, adults, and older adults RESULTS: The results indicate higher levels of inequality in the use of specialized physician services in the child groups, and higher levels of inequity in the adult group. In the use of dental services, the greatest inequality and inequity is found among older adults. For visits to emergency services in the last two years for which data are available (2009 and 2011), the adult group shows a higher level of inequality CONCUSIONS: In terms of levels of inequity and inequality, there are differences among children, adults, and older adults over the years in at least three of the six variables studied.

Determining the feasibility of establishing new multiple-use marine protected areas in Chile.

This paper evaluates the feasibility of establishing a multiple-use marine protected area. The methodology was applied to evaluate three proposed sites in Chile with diverse conservation needs, social stress and poverty levels, and different economic activities (small-scale fishing, heavy industry, and mining activities). We use two broad categories for the evaluation: socio-economic and political-institutional. The methodology uses a combination of secondary data with personal interviews, workshops, and focus groups with stakeholders (e.g., fishermen, unions, politicians, social organizations) from different political, social, and economic backgrounds to characterize current and potential natural and social resources and to evaluate in an ordinal scale the feasibility of establishing the protected area. The methodology allows us to correctly identify the challenges faced in each site and can be used to develop appropriate strategies for balancing economic, social, and environmental objectives. This methodology can be replicated to evaluate the feasibility of other marine or terrestrial protected areas.

Contingent valuation scenarios for chronic illnesses: the case of childhood asthma.

OBJECTIVES: We use a contingent valuation (CV) study of childhood asthma to discuss a central issue in designing CV studies of chronic illness-the need for a detailed, realistic scenario that minimizes confounding factors-and show how to address this issue. We apply our methodology to estimate households' willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in asthma morbidity. METHODS: By using a combination of focus groups, revealed preference surveys, and epidemiological surveys, we gathered information on health status, attitudes, and beliefs regarding asthma, risk-averting behaviors, perceptions of these behaviors, and household socioeconomic characteristics. We used this information to design a CV survey that we extensively tested for validity. In the survey, we elicited participants' WTP for a hypothetical device that would reduce symptom-days by improving asthma management; these data enabled us to estimate household WTP by using a variety of econometric models. RESULTS: Our analysis of households with children with asthma yielded the following conclusions: the scenario should address both physical asthma symptoms and the psychosocial stress of managing a chronic illness; the survey should measure household perceptions of the burden of asthma in addition to objective measures such as symptom-days; and the scenario should not involve substantial behavioral changes or a new medication, to avoid confounding household preferences with unrelated attributes of the scenario. Our primary models estimated mean household WTP for a 50% reduction in symptom-days (and accompanying reductions in psychosocial stress) at $56.48 to $64.84 per month. CONCLUSIONS: Our methodology can be used to inform CV studies of chronic illness. Our WTP estimates can help regulatory agencies assess a wide range of policies that affect the incidence or severity of asthma.